Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Friday 17 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 34580 (+6074) 677056 (+33548) 57271 (+8592) 585205 (+18882)
Italy 22170 (+525) 168941 (+3786) 40164 (+2072) 106607 (+1189)
Spain 19315 (+607) 184948 (+7304) 74797 (+3944) 90836 (+2753)
France 17920 (+753) 165027 (+17164) 32812 (+1857) 114295 (+14554)
United Kingdom 13729 (+861) 103093 (+4617) 0 (+0) 89364 (+3756)
Iran 4869 (+92) 77995 (+1606) 52229 (+2296) 20897 (-782)
Belgium 4857 (+417) 34809 (+1236) 7562 (+455) 22390 (+364)
Germany 4052 (+248) 137698 (+2945) 77000 (+4400) 56646 (-1703)
China 3342 (+0) 82341 (+46) 77892 (+76) 1107 (-30)
Netherlands 3315 (+181) 29214 (+1061) 250 (+0) 25649 (+880)
Brazil 1947 (+190) 30683 (+2073) 14026 (+0) 14710 (+1883)
Turkey 1643 (+125) 74193 (+4801) 7089 (+1415) 65461 (+3261)
Sweden 1333 (+130) 12540 (+613) 550 (+169) 10657 (+314)
Switzerland 1281 (+42) 26732 (+396) 15900 (+500) 9551 (-146)
Canada 1191 (+181) 29929 (+1550) 9674 (+737) 19064 (+632)
Portugal 629 (+30) 18841 (+750) 493 (+110) 17719 (+610)
Indonesia 496 (+27) 5516 (+380) 548 (+102) 4472 (+251)
Ireland 486 (+42) 13271 (+724) 77 (+0) 12708 (+682)
Mexico 449 (+43) 5847 (+448) 2125 (+0) 3273 (+405)
India 448 (+43) 13430 (+1108) 1768 (+336) 11214 (+729)
Austria 410 (+17) 14476 (+126) 8986 (+888) 5080 (-779)
Ecuador 403 (+15) 8225 (+367) 838 (+58) 6984 (+294)
Romania 392 (+20) 7707 (+491) 1357 (+140) 5958 (+331)
Philippines 362 (+13) 5660 (+207) 435 (+82) 4863 (+112)
Algeria 348 (+12) 2268 (+108) 783 (+75) 1137 (+21)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 142068 (+11035) 2097564 (+102020) 468507 (+36814)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 141723 ( +5100) 2093027 ( +51890) 475325 ( +23070)
Sat 18 April 2020 146432 ( +4710) 2140092 ( +47065) 497132 ( +21806)
Sun 19 April 2020 150749 ( +4317) 2182548 ( +42456) 517549 ( +20417)
Mon 20 April 2020 154678 ( +3929) 2220658 ( +38111) 536495 ( +18946)
Tue 21 April 2020 158232 ( +3554) 2254717 ( +34059) 553932 ( +17437)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 3342 (+0) 82341 (+46) 77892 (+76)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 3284 ( +0) 81245 ( +0) 76746 ( +16)
Sat 18 April 2020 3284 ( +0) 81245 ( +0) 76759 ( +14)
Sun 19 April 2020 3284 ( +0) 81245 ( +0) 76771 ( +12)
Mon 20 April 2020 3284 ( +0) 81245 ( +0) 76782 ( +10)
Tue 21 April 2020 3284 ( +0) 81245 ( +0) 76791 ( +9)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 19315 (+607) 184948 (+7304) 74797 (+3944)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 18734 ( +193) 177983 ( +1472) 73714 ( +1591)
Sat 18 April 2020 18896 ( +162) 179229 ( +1246) 75069 ( +1355)
Sun 19 April 2020 19031 ( +135) 180280 ( +1052) 76215 ( +1147)
Mon 20 April 2020 19143 ( +113) 181166 ( +886) 77180 ( +965)
Tue 21 April 2020 19237 ( +94) 181911 ( +745) 77988 ( +808)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 22170 (+525) 168941 (+3786) 40164 (+2072)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 21450 ( +211) 163053 ( +1271) 40736 ( +1251)
Sat 18 April 2020 21634 ( +184) 164173 ( +1120) 41912 ( +1177)
Sun 19 April 2020 21795 ( +160) 165157 ( +985) 43013 ( +1100)
Mon 20 April 2020 21934 ( +140) 166022 ( +864) 44037 ( +1024)
Tue 21 April 2020 22055 ( +121) 166780 ( +758) 44985 ( +949)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 13729 (+861) 103093 (+4617) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 13994 ( +516) 105948 ( +3705) 175 ( +5)
Sat 18 April 2020 14438 ( +445) 109295 ( +3347) 181 ( +6)
Sun 19 April 2020 14817 ( +379) 112294 ( +2999) 186 ( +6)
Mon 20 April 2020 15137 ( +319) 114961 ( +2666) 192 ( +6)
Tue 21 April 2020 15404 ( +267) 117315 ( +2354) 199 ( +6)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 34580 (+6074) 677056 (+33548) 57271 (+8592)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 34152 ( +2169) 674240 ( +16887) 62859 ( +7378)
Sat 18 April 2020 36196 ( +2045) 688981 ( +14741) 71218 ( +8359)
Sun 19 April 2020 38095 ( +1899) 701759 ( +12778) 80688 ( +9470)
Mon 20 April 2020 39836 ( +1740) 712768 ( +11009) 91418 ( +10730)
Tue 21 April 2020 41411 ( +1575) 722204 ( +9436) 103574 ( +12157)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 17920 (+753) 165027 (+17164) 32812 (+1857)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 17762 ( +445) 159006 ( +3585) 40466 ( +3429)
Sat 18 April 2020 18141 ( +380) 162179 ( +3173) 44212 ( +3746)
Sun 19 April 2020 18462 ( +321) 164971 ( +2792) 48305 ( +4093)
Mon 20 April 2020 18732 ( +270) 167416 ( +2445) 52777 ( +4472)
Tue 21 April 2020 18957 ( +225) 169547 ( +2131) 57663 ( +4886)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 4052 (+248) 137698 (+2945) 77000 (+4400)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 4007 ( +132) 135864 ( +1192) 77898 ( +2530)
Sat 18 April 2020 4123 ( +116) 136879 ( +1015) 80091 ( +2193)
Sun 19 April 2020 4223 ( +100) 137741 ( +862) 81975 ( +1883)
Mon 20 April 2020 4309 ( +86) 138473 ( +731) 83578 ( +1604)
Tue 21 April 2020 4382 ( +73) 139091 ( +619) 84934 ( +1356)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 3315 (+181) 29214 (+1061) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 3204 ( +59) 28916 ( +552) 250 ( +0)
Sat 18 April 2020 3254 ( +51) 29409 ( +493) 250 ( +0)
Sun 19 April 2020 3297 ( +43) 29848 ( +438) 250 ( +0)
Mon 20 April 2020 3333 ( +36) 30236 ( +388) 250 ( +0)
Tue 21 April 2020 3364 ( +30) 30579 ( +343) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 4857 (+417) 34809 (+1236) 7562 (+455)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 5024 ( +245) 34248 ( +728) 7569 ( +180)
Sat 18 April 2020 5244 ( +220) 34892 ( +644) 7723 ( +154)
Sun 19 April 2020 5438 ( +194) 35458 ( +566) 7853 ( +130)
Mon 20 April 2020 5608 ( +170) 35953 ( +495) 7963 ( +110)
Tue 21 April 2020 5755 ( +147) 36385 ( +432) 8055 ( +92)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 1333 (+130) 12540 (+613) 550 (+169)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 1289 ( +54) 12859 ( +423) 479 ( +16)
Sat 18 April 2020 1337 ( +48) 13259 ( +400) 493 ( +14)
Sun 19 April 2020 1379 ( +42) 13634 ( +375) 505 ( +12)
Mon 20 April 2020 1416 ( +37) 13985 ( +351) 515 ( +10)
Tue 21 April 2020 1447 ( +32) 14311 ( +326) 523 ( +8)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 314 (+28) 7918 (+336) 774 (+106)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 319 ( +15) 8008 ( +215) 841 ( +80)
Sat 18 April 2020 332 ( +13) 8199 ( +192) 918 ( +77)
Sun 19 April 2020 344 ( +11) 8369 ( +170) 989 ( +71)
Mon 20 April 2020 354 ( +10) 8518 ( +149) 1055 ( +65)
Tue 21 April 2020 362 ( +8) 8648 ( +130) 1113 ( +58)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 1281 (+42) 26732 (+396) 15900 (+500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 1268 ( +24) 26124 ( +136) 15474 ( +298)
Sat 18 April 2020 1289 ( +20) 26239 ( +115) 15713 ( +239)
Sun 19 April 2020 1306 ( +17) 26336 ( +97) 15904 ( +191)
Mon 20 April 2020 1321 ( +15) 26417 ( +82) 16055 ( +151)
Tue 21 April 2020 1333 ( +13) 26486 ( +69) 16174 ( +119)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 4869 (+92) 77995 (+1606) 52229 (+2296)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 4755 ( +50) 79384 ( +1245) 61171 ( +4834)
Sat 18 April 2020 4800 ( +44) 80527 ( +1143) 66420 ( +5249)
Sun 19 April 2020 4839 ( +40) 81575 ( +1047) 72119 ( +5699)
Mon 20 April 2020 4875 ( +36) 82531 ( +957) 78308 ( +6188)
Tue 21 April 2020 4907 ( +32) 83403 ( +872) 85027 ( +6720)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.